Microsoft’s NFL Prediction Engine Is Beating The Vegas Favorites Through 2 Weeks — Here Are Its Picks For Week 3

By Tony Manfred | Small Business

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Jason Miller/Getty Images

Cortana likes the Browns over the Ravens in Week 3.

For the second-straight week Microsoft’s Cortana, the virtual assistant that’s predicting every NFL game this season, went 10-6 in its NFL picks.

Cortana now has a 20-12 record on the year.

For comparison, Las Vegas favorites are 18-14 overall and Nate Silver’s ELO model is 19-13. Considering that the engine is just predicting winners and not results against the spread, 20-12 is just an okay record. 

In the Week 2 games in which Cortana and Vegas disagreed (Baltimore-Pittsburgh, Miami-Buffalo, New York-Arizona), Cortana went 2-1 and Vegas went 1-2. The Microsoft engine had the Bills as a 62.9% favorite while Vegas initially had the Dolphins as the favorite. Buffalo won 29-10.

Here are Cortana’s picks for Week 3 (with the Vegas betting lines as of Tuesday afternoon in parentheses):

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons — Falcons win, 71.6% chance (Falcons -6.5)
  • San Diego Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills — Chargers win, 51.5% chance (Bills -2.5)
  • Dallas Cowboys vs. St. Louis Rams — Cowboys win, 55% chance (Cowboys -1)
  • Washington Redskin vs. Philadelphia Eagles — Eagles win, 72.9% chance (Eagles -6.5)
  • Houston Texans vs. New York Giants — Texans win, 58.2% chance (Texans -2.5)
  • Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints — Saints win, 74.2% chance (Saints -9.5)
  • Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals — Bengals win, 71.6% chance (Bengals -7)
  • Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns — Browns win, 58.2% chance (Ravens -1.5)
  • Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions — Lions win, 58.2% chance (Lions -1.5)
  • Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars — Colts win, 64.4% chance (Colts -6.5)
  • Oakland Raiders vs. New England Patriots — Patriots win, 82% chance (Patriots -14)
  • San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals — 49ers win, 58.2% chance (49ers -2.5)
  • Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks — Seahawks win, 58.2% chance (Seahawks -5)
  • Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins — Dolphins win, 53.3% chance (Dolphins -4.5)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Carolina Panthers — Panthers win, 67.4% chance (Panthers -3.5)
  • Chicago Bears vs. New York Jets — Jets win, 58.2% chance (Jets -2.5)

Vegas and Cortana disagree on two games, Baltimore-Cleveland and San Diego-Buffalo.

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